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Usually, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It often acts as a kind of mea culpa. Sorry we got wrong your team in our preseason projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest upset.

Yet the current field is distinctly different. The pool of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and recent strugglers rising in unison. In an normal year, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling year, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. In the right system, Williams has been given the chance to display his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed solely in the coach's vision: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to conjure magic out of nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Virtually each decision – overhauling the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the level of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is in place for long-term success. But he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements together.

Following an initial hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

Still